Serie 5: Statistical Analysis di Internazionale Milano

This season was another roller-coaster with Champions League football being secured only on the last match of the season. Having said that, the only way forward from this point is up, and no matter what happens in the 2019–20 summer mercato, this season will have high expectations, to the levels of which haven’t been seen at the San Siro for many years. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank you for all the support that has been shown on the series, and this will be the final part of the series. Here is part 1, part 2, and part 3 and part 4 which I request you to read if you haven’t already.

Are Inter Milan really set for the future?

Last December, I left you with this age vs minutes played graph and had the observations:

Age vs Minutes graph (December)

1. Luciano Spalletti has to start rotating the young core better
2. The backroom staff needs to start focusing on a potential future replacement
3. The central midfield and the right-back depth is appalling
4. Players like Milan Skriniar, Mauro Icardi, Matteo Politano, Marcelo Brozovic and Stefan de Vrij need to be kept at the club for as long as possible

Here is the updated version of the same graph and a fresh set of complaints

Age vs Minutes Graph (2018–19 season)

Side Note: Sebastian Esposito, Davide Merola, Yann Karamoh and Andrea Ranocchia ‘s combined ~200 minutes have not been represented in this graph

Once again, Spalletti refused to extend his trust to a major section of his younger players who are just entering their prime. It’s also worth noting that Lautaro Martinez would probably not have racked up a solid amount of minutes if not for the entire drama surrounding Icardi.

As I had said at the beginning of the season (much to the community’s annoyance), Vrsaljko was not much of an upgrade over Danilo D’Ambrosio and he could not earn a first-team place before his injury in the first place. Having said that, I’m not sure whether we should start looking into the market for another right-back or go ahead with Cedric Soares.

One position that I’m sure we need an upgrade is in center-midfield, when Borja Valero is being forced to play 1717 minutes a season, the Nico Barella transfer sounds even better than it already is.

The Samir Handanovic replacement?

Obviously, Giuseppe Marotta is not reading my articles, hence the reason for not even seriously considering a goalkeeper replacement for the absolute 34-year-old beast who just played 4320 minutes in an entire season.

Jokes aside, I did try to find a replacement myself. I’ll shorten the nerdy aspect into one paragraph — I went through 4 different websites and after crunching stats like in-box save %, long ball accuracy, short passes/90, and others, I came up with a list of prospective replacements. The list contained over 1000 goalkeepers from 11 leagues, I eliminated most of them on the basis of market value, age and some other external factors and finally arrived at one player who fit the bill perfectly.

The player turned out to be Alessio Cragno from Cagliari. Here is a side-by-side analysis with Samir Handanovic

Alessio Cragno v Samir Handanovic

The thing I love the most about Cragno is that he keeps up a spectacular in-box save rate despite facing almost 4 shots a game from within the box. His passing stats are again, really good. Cagliari, of course, have a more direct approach, as can be seen from the difference in the long passes and short passes/90 vs the same stats for Hando.

Is Cragno better than Handanovic? Not even close

Is Cragno someone we should consider buying in the 2020–21 summer window? Definitely

Is Cragno showing signs of being world-class? Yes

Is Cragno underrated in the media when compared to Gianluigi Donnarumma and Simone Scuffet? Yes

Final Verdict: Buy Alessio Cragno for ~20M next season or take a risk on Andrei Radu’s future development.

Should we bring Alessandro Bastoni back?

Inter defenders 2018/19 + Bastoni 2018/19 + Godin last 3 seasons defensive stats

Side Note: This does include Club+National Team performances + All stats are adjusted to 90 minutes

Bastoni has played a solid amount of games this season and if sent on loan once again, will definitely get a bigger role which will help his development as a player.

However, here is my case for keeping Bastoni at the club. With Antonio Conte arriving next season, we will play 3 center-backs and with Diego Godin, de Vrij and Skriniar being the indisputable first choice, we will need solid backups for them and with Miranda mostly leaving and Ranocchia’s age, I’m sure Bastoni will be given a good amount of game time. Furthermore, an opportunity to learn under one of the greatest center-backs of all time in Godin is something that will be highly beneficial for Bastoni in the long run.